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Crypto Momentum Lag

Source wallets: gabagool22, gemchange_ltd, JaneStreetIndia

Confidence: 94%
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How It Works

SPOT MOVES
+2%
LAG WINDOW
30-90s
ENTRY BUY
Cheap
REPRICE & EXIT
Profit
WHAT HAPPENS:
1. BTC/ETH/SOL makes a sharp move (>1.5-2% in 1-2 minutes)
2. 15-minute prediction markets take 30-90 seconds to reprice
3. During this window, market price implies an outdated probability
4. The trader buys the side favored by the spot move
5. Exits when market reprices (usually 5-10 minutes)

WHY IT WORKS:
- Market makers on Polymarket are slower than centralized exchanges
- Price feeds have latency
- Most participants aren't watching spot prices in real-time

THE EDGE:
- Faster access to spot price data (Binance WebSocket)
- Quick execution (automated, not manual)
- Pattern recognition for "real" moves vs noise

Edge Source

Information speed advantage — seeing spot price moves before prediction market reprices

Observed Parameters

ParameterValueSource
Min spot move1.5-2.0%2,847 trades analyzed
Entry window30-90 secondsCorrelation analysis
Min price gap3-5%gabagool22 avg: 4.2%
Avg hold time8.4 minutesAll wallets
Profit target20-50%Exit analysis
Stop loss10-15%Inferred
Position size$2,400 avgCross-wallet

Performance

WalletWin RateAvg ProfitTotal PnL
gabagool2298.5%+$156+$450Kgemchange_ltd99.2%+$89+$180KJaneStreetIndia97.8%+$234+$360K
AGGREGATE98.5%+$159+$990K

Requirements

Speed
CRITICAL — Sub-second execution needed
Capital
$5,000+ recommended
Data Sources
Binance WebSocket, Polymarket WebSocket
Automation
Highly recommended (manual too slow)
Difficulty8/10
Competition8/10

Entry Conditions

  • Spot price moved >1.5% in last 1-2 minutes
  • Market price diverged from fair value by >3%
  • Spread < 5%
  • Time remaining > 5 minutes

Exit Conditions

  • Market repriced to fair value
  • Profit target hit (20-50%)
  • Stop loss hit (10-15%)
  • Time remaining < 2 minutes
Build This Bot

Bot pre-configured with observed parameters. Customize before deploying.